The analysis of the China aluminum price changing


The analysis of why LME drop 10% but SME only drop about 4%

Compare with LME changing speed, China is really slower to follow. The main reason is that China's fundamentals are weak. Its rise may be mainly driven by the external market. Data released in the first quarter of 2018 show that China's electrolytic aluminum production has not increased. Even though we think that this year's Spring Festival may be late, we push back to the end of March in the peak season of March, including the past 20 days in April, and there has not been a decline in stock during this period.

Therefore, demand is not as expected, output has not increased, but demand has not increased. Therefore, there is no obvious decline in inventory, we simply calculate the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum consumption in the first quarter of 2018, the apparent consumption is not detailed according to the growth of real estate, or the growth of the car. And the surplus inventory of the month is calculated by such a simple addition and subtraction method. The apparent consumer growth rate calculated is only 0.73%.


2020-06-05
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